* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/10/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 46 49 53 56 57 59 57 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 46 49 53 56 57 59 57 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 34 37 40 43 45 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 15 10 12 10 15 13 14 12 14 13 16 19 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 1 2 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 268 272 284 299 301 278 279 281 295 273 272 253 282 283 276 282 284 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 148 148 150 153 152 156 157 158 157 155 153 144 136 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 51 47 45 43 44 45 46 48 56 66 69 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -87 -92 -86 -78 -80 -74 -77 -65 -76 -75 -80 -74 -51 -31 -33 -1 200 MB DIV 17 -1 -7 -5 1 -15 -2 -24 34 5 -7 -2 20 17 54 -25 5 700-850 TADV 19 15 12 7 4 0 -1 0 -1 3 0 2 0 8 7 15 16 LAND (KM) 1288 1309 1314 1319 1314 1260 1154 1077 1039 1109 1203 1293 1378 1384 1213 1058 931 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.8 28.9 29.8 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.3 52.9 53.4 53.7 53.9 54.5 55.7 57.2 58.8 59.7 60.2 60.3 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 5 3 2 4 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 8 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 20 20 20 22 24 24 22 21 20 18 12 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. 33. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.2 52.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.60 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 8.2% 5.7% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 3.4% 7.6% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.6% 2.2% 1.7% 0.1% 1.1% 5.1% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/10/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/10/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 41 46 49 53 56 57 59 57 57 56 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 34 40 45 48 52 55 56 58 56 56 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 31 37 42 45 49 52 53 55 53 53 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 30 35 38 42 45 46 48 46 46 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT