* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 43 48 55 60 65 71 75 80 83 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 43 48 55 60 65 71 75 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 40 46 52 59 66 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 12 11 11 6 5 2 4 3 10 7 11 5 3 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 10 5 3 7 2 2 2 0 0 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 264 266 268 289 298 316 289 242 237 267 242 259 242 335 323 341 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 142 143 143 144 148 149 148 150 150 152 154 159 162 165 171 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 53 52 50 48 45 43 41 41 41 43 41 44 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -11 -37 -47 -58 -82 -75 -68 -48 -49 -50 -53 -50 -55 -50 -66 -51 200 MB DIV 15 8 -2 7 8 -7 16 -43 -9 -19 22 -8 0 -27 13 -10 8 700-850 TADV 20 21 23 21 15 14 4 1 -2 -2 -6 0 -5 0 -5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1489 1361 1287 1234 1206 1166 1111 1016 863 706 590 538 558 504 396 386 208 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.9 25.2 25.0 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.5 50.6 51.6 52.4 53.6 54.7 55.9 57.6 59.6 62.0 64.4 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 11 9 6 5 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 21 21 19 19 20 23 26 27 38 38 40 39 38 44 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 30. 35. 40. 46. 50. 55. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 48.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.0% 7.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.9% 5.6% 4.6% 2.1% 8.0% 6.3% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 6.8% 4.5% 3.4% 0.7% 2.7% 4.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/09/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 37 43 48 55 60 65 71 75 80 83 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 47 54 59 64 70 74 79 82 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 27 32 38 43 50 55 60 66 70 75 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 20 25 31 36 43 48 53 59 63 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT