* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 39 45 51 59 64 67 71 74 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 39 45 51 59 64 67 71 74 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 30 34 38 44 49 55 61 68 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 8 6 5 3 5 2 4 6 10 12 11 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 9 10 6 10 7 2 3 3 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 264 273 282 282 271 300 315 273 260 272 257 211 260 226 257 240 345 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.9 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 140 142 143 142 145 146 146 149 153 153 156 160 158 169 172 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 54 53 51 50 45 42 39 39 39 40 41 43 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 -5 -26 -37 -63 -77 -62 -72 -64 -68 -64 -55 -48 -52 -37 -48 200 MB DIV 7 10 7 -7 19 -4 -5 -2 -11 -36 9 -1 5 -8 -4 -23 13 700-850 TADV 17 16 19 22 20 14 10 3 -3 -1 -7 0 -7 -1 -9 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1564 1459 1342 1264 1204 1163 1107 1037 905 741 566 464 469 374 221 232 43 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.0 24.2 24.7 24.8 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 48.2 49.6 50.7 51.7 53.0 54.2 55.3 56.7 58.7 61.2 63.8 66.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 12 10 7 5 6 8 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 20 21 22 19 20 21 25 25 35 41 44 44 51 53 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -5. -7. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 14. 20. 26. 34. 39. 42. 46. 49. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 46.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.5% 7.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 3.1% 3.6% 8.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.4% 3.4% 2.2% 0.2% 1.0% 3.9% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.7% 2.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.5% 1.9% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/09/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 39 45 51 59 64 67 71 74 78 81 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 28 30 38 44 50 58 63 66 70 73 77 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 25 27 35 41 47 55 60 63 67 70 74 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 21 29 35 41 49 54 57 61 64 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT