* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 46 52 58 61 66 69 74 78 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 46 52 58 61 66 69 74 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 53 60 69 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 7 10 9 8 4 6 6 8 6 12 8 12 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 5 9 4 1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 270 274 278 279 280 306 295 311 276 260 269 254 254 251 256 293 317 SST (C) 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 135 137 139 140 143 143 149 150 148 148 152 152 154 158 172 171 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 56 55 53 51 49 44 42 39 41 43 44 44 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 0 -11 -33 -63 -85 -73 -75 -75 -70 -67 -69 -66 -68 -71 -74 200 MB DIV -3 8 15 10 2 6 -10 19 -19 -9 -5 21 -13 0 -30 -3 -28 700-850 TADV 17 17 15 19 22 14 16 5 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 2 -4 2 LAND (KM) 1712 1592 1509 1401 1324 1255 1226 1190 1114 986 850 748 704 785 748 712 609 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.8 22.6 24.2 25.1 25.5 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.8 46.4 47.8 49.1 50.2 51.9 53.0 53.9 54.9 56.4 58.5 60.8 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 12 9 6 4 6 9 10 10 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 15 19 21 18 18 19 20 24 27 31 37 33 36 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 36. 41. 44. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 44.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.9% 8.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.8% 6.5% 3.0% 1.5% 3.8% 2.3% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 8.0% 5.0% 3.1% 0.5% 1.3% 3.8% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/09/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 46 52 58 61 66 69 74 78 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 35 40 45 51 57 60 65 68 73 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 32 37 42 48 54 57 62 65 70 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 25 30 35 41 47 50 55 58 63 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT