* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 39 45 46 50 50 52 54 57 62 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 39 45 46 50 50 52 54 57 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 36 38 42 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 3 3 9 10 13 19 10 13 7 11 8 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 7 9 9 0 0 -1 -5 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 51 55 38 329 277 269 272 288 294 286 268 287 285 320 12 14 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 122 127 128 134 141 147 150 151 148 143 141 142 142 139 143 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 62 61 58 59 56 52 53 51 47 43 41 44 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 6 8 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -16 -16 -6 -14 -32 -48 -75 -97 -93 -85 -68 -62 -76 -89 -110 -99 200 MB DIV -37 -31 -19 -5 0 13 2 18 8 19 -12 4 -5 3 -4 -3 -16 700-850 TADV 6 7 11 18 20 23 27 22 25 10 4 0 4 1 5 1 -3 LAND (KM) 2057 2037 2009 1974 1871 1648 1501 1491 1540 1608 1679 1726 1792 1699 1633 1630 1698 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.3 22.1 24.2 26.2 27.7 28.8 29.5 29.9 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.8 38.9 40.3 41.8 43.5 46.7 49.1 50.6 51.4 51.7 51.5 51.3 51.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 17 17 17 14 10 7 4 3 3 5 5 4 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 6 8 13 17 15 15 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -10. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 20. 21. 25. 25. 27. 29. 32. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 37.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.2% 8.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 6.2% 4.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.7% 3.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 1.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962025 INVEST 08/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/08/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 39 45 46 50 50 52 54 57 62 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 31 36 39 45 46 50 50 52 54 57 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 28 33 36 42 43 47 47 49 51 54 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 21 26 29 35 36 40 40 42 44 47 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT