* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL962025 08/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 48 53 57 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 48 53 57 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 41 45 50 54 57 59 60 61 60 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 21 22 16 11 9 6 9 16 10 20 19 20 15 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 1 0 1 0 -4 -3 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 64 54 66 69 51 55 344 297 295 310 278 293 276 264 273 264 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 126 122 120 124 128 135 141 146 155 159 155 152 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 71 70 69 65 65 61 62 61 58 62 60 58 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 47 46 30 3 -12 -5 -16 -33 -54 -78 -91 -107 -97 -93 -44 200 MB DIV 60 55 55 50 43 -21 -63 -30 24 18 12 7 26 16 30 34 35 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -6 -2 -1 5 6 11 20 24 20 36 12 7 10 14 15 LAND (KM) 1718 1789 1856 1905 1973 1952 1875 1764 1499 1231 1050 1017 1083 1203 1409 1273 1120 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.5 20.0 21.7 23.6 25.4 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.1 33.9 34.7 35.5 36.2 38.0 40.5 43.7 47.3 50.8 53.9 56.5 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 15 17 19 18 16 14 12 11 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 11 9 8 5 5 9 14 21 22 23 21 20 15 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 23. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 33.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962025 INVEST 08/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 14.5% 10.0% 7.3% 5.4% 10.0% 10.5% 18.7% Logistic: 6.8% 17.2% 8.0% 4.2% 3.8% 7.5% 8.8% 12.3% Bayesian: 1.7% 18.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.5% 3.1% 0.9% 1.0% Consensus: 3.7% 16.8% 6.9% 4.0% 3.2% 6.9% 6.7% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962025 INVEST 08/06/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 44 48 53 57 58 61 63 65 67 68 69 71 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 44 49 53 54 57 59 61 63 64 65 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 38 43 47 48 51 53 55 57 58 59 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 34 38 39 42 44 46 48 49 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT