* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 55 56 58 61 60 64 62 55 52 48 47 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 55 56 58 61 60 64 62 55 52 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 39 40 43 46 49 49 45 41 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 18 20 13 20 16 16 13 25 26 34 34 40 67 87 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 3 0 9 6 7 2 6 -1 -1 -1 3 -1 -1 -18 SHEAR DIR 302 295 299 298 307 310 310 299 295 285 292 292 304 312 306 279 276 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.0 28.2 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.4 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 152 156 157 163 160 163 160 159 138 142 130 124 117 112 89 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 60 59 62 68 74 74 72 70 70 74 80 82 66 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 19 19 18 20 22 22 26 26 24 24 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 16 0 -3 -11 -16 -19 -29 -20 -21 6 8 1 3 -21 -4 66 14 200 MB DIV 49 41 70 58 47 57 46 49 73 56 73 78 70 58 80 11 15 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -13 -5 -3 1 14 10 2 2 11 34 36 47 65 -24 -156 LAND (KM) 1193 1084 998 927 909 555 406 205 249 386 588 895 1275 1342 1311 1105 925 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 17 15 13 10 11 13 16 17 19 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 27 32 35 38 46 54 61 61 61 57 46 28 14 5 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 37. 35. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -24. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 10. 9. 4. 4. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 25. 26. 28. 31. 30. 34. 32. 25. 22. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 43.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 17.2% 11.4% 8.2% 6.3% 10.9% 11.1% 18.7% Logistic: 13.2% 24.4% 14.9% 7.5% 4.2% 6.3% 5.6% 10.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 23.2% 7.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.7% 0.9% 2.8% Consensus: 6.4% 21.6% 11.3% 5.6% 3.7% 6.6% 5.9% 10.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 8.0% SDCON: 4.2% 15.8% 7.1% 3.3% 2.3% 4.8% 3.4% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/07/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 44 51 55 56 58 61 60 64 62 55 52 48 47 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 47 51 52 54 57 56 60 58 51 48 44 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 40 44 45 47 50 49 53 51 44 41 37 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 34 35 37 40 39 43 41 34 31 27 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT