* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/07/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 59 62 64 65 65 68 68 63 62 56 53 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 54 59 62 64 65 65 68 68 63 62 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 45 47 48 50 53 53 52 49 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 12 16 16 20 19 19 14 22 23 23 24 28 39 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 7 3 3 2 7 2 8 0 1 6 4 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 290 291 298 294 296 297 321 307 299 296 294 287 300 299 278 277 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.9 26.3 25.6 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 149 154 158 159 160 161 157 149 141 137 120 113 114 107 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 61 59 59 65 71 75 73 70 69 71 75 78 74 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 18 18 18 19 19 20 22 22 25 26 24 25 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 2 0 -14 -27 -29 -39 -34 1 34 22 -1 49 27 42 35 200 MB DIV 51 45 41 49 43 42 33 48 34 69 44 71 94 69 82 82 1 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -10 -15 -6 2 6 18 5 14 11 34 53 53 46 31 -8 LAND (KM) 1378 1249 1152 1074 996 823 551 422 276 375 564 816 1106 1279 1034 989 1084 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 14.4 15.8 17.4 19.2 21.1 23.3 25.9 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.5 44.3 46.2 48.2 51.9 55.1 57.7 59.7 61.0 61.9 62.5 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 18 16 14 12 11 12 13 15 18 20 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 30 35 36 50 55 59 57 55 48 32 20 7 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. 35. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 12. 13. 8. 9. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 38. 38. 33. 32. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 40.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 16.6% 11.1% 8.0% 6.1% 10.8% 11.9% 19.1% Logistic: 10.2% 22.7% 12.6% 4.2% 2.2% 5.2% 7.5% 12.9% Bayesian: 3.6% 29.8% 9.3% 1.3% 0.5% 6.0% 2.6% 7.8% Consensus: 5.8% 23.0% 11.0% 4.5% 2.9% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 30.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 7.0% 10.0% SDCON: 5.4% 26.5% 10.5% 4.2% 2.4% 5.6% 7.1% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/07/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 48 54 59 62 64 65 65 68 68 63 62 56 53 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 43 49 54 57 59 60 60 63 63 58 57 51 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 41 46 49 51 52 52 55 55 50 49 43 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 35 38 40 41 41 44 44 39 38 32 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT