* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/07/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 54 63 67 70 67 64 62 60 59 55 52 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 54 63 67 70 67 64 62 60 59 55 52 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 46 50 52 52 51 51 50 50 50 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 10 13 19 18 26 26 21 18 23 18 26 26 38 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 6 7 0 3 3 2 0 5 2 3 4 1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 290 290 299 308 303 309 302 309 324 305 290 290 284 298 309 288 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.0 27.8 27.9 26.5 25.8 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 147 149 155 159 159 160 158 153 136 137 122 116 113 115 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 64 63 62 66 69 78 76 77 73 73 75 82 78 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 16 17 20 20 19 20 19 20 21 22 23 22 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 31 31 21 3 -3 -25 -24 -36 -32 -26 24 14 10 12 12 78 129 200 MB DIV 52 63 55 68 60 21 44 37 54 71 69 85 114 76 102 39 11 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -8 -8 -8 3 10 15 20 17 17 32 43 49 59 32 -102 LAND (KM) 1497 1387 1253 1158 1080 979 665 502 322 356 527 755 1083 1327 1122 1124 1165 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 14.0 15.4 16.8 18.7 20.7 22.9 25.4 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.8 42.8 44.7 46.6 50.4 53.7 56.6 58.9 60.6 61.8 62.8 62.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 19 19 19 16 15 13 13 12 15 15 18 22 28 35 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 31 35 45 54 59 57 54 49 35 20 8 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. 36. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 33. 37. 40. 37. 34. 32. 30. 29. 25. 22. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 39.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 16.8% 11.2% 8.0% 6.0% 10.9% 12.0% 18.3% Logistic: 6.9% 22.3% 11.8% 4.3% 2.0% 4.1% 6.7% 8.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 24.0% 5.1% 0.6% 0.4% 2.6% 2.4% 4.7% Consensus: 3.9% 21.0% 9.4% 4.3% 2.8% 5.8% 7.0% 10.5% DTOPS: 12.0% 63.0% 19.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 9.0% SDCON: 7.9% 42.0% 14.2% 4.1% 2.4% 4.9% 5.0% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 10/07/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/07/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 41 47 54 63 67 70 67 64 62 60 59 55 52 49 49 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 48 57 61 64 61 58 56 54 53 49 46 43 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 39 48 52 55 52 49 47 45 44 40 37 34 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 36 40 43 40 37 35 33 32 28 25 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT