* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/06/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 44 52 59 65 64 63 60 58 60 55 53 50 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 44 52 59 65 64 63 60 58 60 55 53 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 37 40 42 42 41 40 39 39 38 36 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 12 11 18 20 24 22 23 21 26 25 30 32 38 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 1 1 0 4 -1 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 350 340 332 345 334 317 307 295 315 303 300 290 299 284 302 303 288 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.7 25.9 26.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 154 153 153 155 159 158 157 151 147 137 123 115 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 9 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 67 66 63 62 66 69 72 75 76 76 76 80 82 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 14 16 18 19 19 20 18 19 19 18 20 18 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 22 14 -3 -28 -37 -42 -56 -63 -7 10 12 -4 0 7 77 200 MB DIV 25 51 45 45 58 32 15 29 68 30 75 82 101 76 63 62 50 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -9 -5 -6 14 15 12 7 31 28 53 48 60 80 35 LAND (KM) 1367 1375 1319 1204 1103 973 935 654 551 411 536 761 1050 1360 1154 1000 1091 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 12.3 13.9 15.6 17.6 19.7 22.1 24.7 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 39.1 40.8 42.4 44.1 47.4 50.8 53.9 56.5 58.5 59.7 60.4 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 17 14 14 13 14 15 15 17 17 22 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 27 27 30 35 46 54 57 52 44 38 22 12 5 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 42. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 9. 7. 7. 6. 4. 7. 3. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 27. 34. 40. 39. 38. 35. 33. 35. 30. 28. 25. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 37.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.80 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 15.3% 10.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 25.0% 11.8% 3.9% 2.8% 6.5% 11.7% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% 4.0% Consensus: 2.2% 16.9% 7.7% 3.7% 1.0% 2.3% 7.8% 7.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 48.0% 15.0% 3.0% 1.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% SDCON: 3.6% 32.4% 11.3% 3.3% 1.0% 5.6% 7.9% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/06/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 44 52 59 65 64 63 60 58 60 55 53 50 47 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 40 48 55 61 60 59 56 54 56 51 49 46 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 33 41 48 54 53 52 49 47 49 44 42 39 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 30 37 43 42 41 38 36 38 33 31 28 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT