* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 42 52 61 69 71 67 69 69 71 73 71 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 42 52 61 69 71 67 69 69 71 73 71 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 47 50 50 50 51 52 53 54 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 11 15 13 14 16 23 20 18 18 19 17 19 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 0 -1 1 0 2 3 3 5 4 0 -2 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 334 349 344 338 352 338 318 307 311 323 311 307 303 289 304 284 279 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.3 27.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 154 152 154 160 160 156 157 153 151 141 142 131 123 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 71 70 66 63 66 68 72 72 71 67 65 66 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 12 15 17 17 19 19 17 18 18 19 20 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 30 26 16 -6 -26 -19 -35 -41 -43 -28 -38 -32 -44 -54 38 200 MB DIV 1 26 35 37 31 55 29 36 35 60 34 54 39 75 49 10 57 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -7 3 6 10 1 18 5 4 8 13 17 19 LAND (KM) 1405 1394 1388 1250 1133 967 845 749 505 443 305 350 481 684 923 1252 1380 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.4 12.3 13.5 14.9 16.7 18.5 20.4 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 38.4 40.0 41.7 43.3 46.4 49.6 52.5 55.1 57.3 59.0 60.1 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 12 12 10 11 11 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 25 27 29 36 40 52 54 60 59 53 50 42 27 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 40. 44. 46. 48. 48. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 7. 8. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 17. 27. 36. 44. 46. 42. 44. 44. 46. 48. 46. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.3 36.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.7% 9.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.3% 5.2% 1.7% 0.9% 4.3% 10.4% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.6% 2.1% Consensus: 1.5% 11.0% 5.6% 3.1% 0.3% 1.6% 7.8% 5.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.2% 13.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.1% 1.3% 4.4% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/06/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 42 52 61 69 71 67 69 69 71 73 71 70 71 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 39 49 58 66 68 64 66 66 68 70 68 67 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 33 43 52 60 62 58 60 60 62 64 62 61 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 32 41 49 51 47 49 49 51 53 51 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT