* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 35 46 56 62 68 68 71 72 76 76 74 73 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 35 46 56 62 68 68 71 72 76 76 74 73 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 27 31 35 38 41 43 45 46 48 49 49 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 16 14 11 19 21 16 17 24 18 20 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 2 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 321 322 336 333 340 358 340 314 304 328 310 298 288 293 287 298 297 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.4 27.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 153 156 157 151 154 155 160 156 156 159 154 143 143 136 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 72 72 69 66 63 66 69 71 72 71 68 69 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 12 16 17 16 18 17 17 17 20 20 21 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 28 28 25 2 -24 -27 -30 -42 -41 -39 -31 -19 -33 -68 -44 200 MB DIV 1 -14 5 24 28 73 43 13 19 44 33 69 73 76 76 17 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 3 11 9 5 4 11 6 14 15 42 41 LAND (KM) 1450 1400 1377 1384 1266 1049 903 868 620 470 393 313 429 613 848 1156 1375 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.9 11.8 13.0 14.3 15.9 17.6 19.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 36.3 38.1 39.7 41.4 44.6 47.8 50.9 53.8 56.1 58.0 59.5 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 17 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 29 27 25 28 33 36 45 54 57 60 55 52 46 31 20 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 36. 41. 45. 47. 50. 50. 50. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 8. 9. 7. 10. 9. 9. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 10. 21. 31. 37. 43. 43. 46. 47. 51. 51. 49. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.9 34.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 12.1% 7.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.3% 3.6% 1.1% 0.7% 3.3% 9.7% 16.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% Consensus: 1.2% 8.1% 4.1% 2.4% 0.3% 1.2% 6.5% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.1% 6.5% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 1.6% 3.7% 4.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/06/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 35 46 56 62 68 68 71 72 76 76 74 73 70 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 34 45 55 61 67 67 70 71 75 75 73 72 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 40 50 56 62 62 65 66 70 70 68 67 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 41 47 53 53 56 57 61 61 59 58 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT