* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 34 46 56 63 69 71 71 74 78 79 78 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 34 46 56 63 69 71 71 74 78 79 78 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 31 36 40 44 47 49 52 53 54 54 55 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 11 12 16 15 13 14 21 17 21 20 22 18 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 2 0 5 2 4 0 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 337 325 328 344 354 359 344 339 306 311 321 303 289 289 288 288 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 27.5 28.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 153 154 157 161 157 153 158 160 158 156 158 156 131 142 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 70 72 72 69 65 68 68 72 74 72 70 70 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 12 17 18 18 19 19 18 19 21 22 24 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 55 41 36 31 29 20 -2 -22 -21 -34 -34 -36 -20 -32 -46 -45 99 200 MB DIV 23 13 3 21 47 78 84 0 3 22 46 40 76 58 48 57 38 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -3 -6 -9 -3 4 12 4 -1 8 6 9 14 26 20 LAND (KM) 1520 1439 1382 1359 1338 1092 919 802 814 549 446 344 288 413 625 923 1357 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 10.0 10.8 11.7 13.0 14.4 16.1 17.9 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.8 35.0 36.9 38.6 40.2 43.3 46.3 49.3 51.9 54.5 56.6 58.5 60.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 18 16 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 13 17 21 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 29 28 31 37 38 49 54 59 60 56 55 44 26 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 23. 30. 37. 42. 47. 50. 52. 52. 54. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 9. 11. 11. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 9. 21. 31. 38. 44. 46. 46. 49. 53. 54. 53. 53. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.8 32.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.3% 8.7% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.4% 2.4% 5.8% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.0% 7.1% 4.1% 2.5% 0.1% 0.8% 5.4% 5.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 13.0% SDCON: 1.0% 6.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.4% 5.7% 9.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/06/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 34 46 56 63 69 71 71 74 78 79 78 78 80 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 33 45 55 62 68 70 70 73 77 78 77 77 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 41 51 58 64 66 66 69 73 74 73 73 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 42 49 55 57 57 60 64 65 64 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT