* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 59 63 67 70 69 69 74 75 77 81 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 59 63 67 70 69 69 74 75 77 81 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 53 56 60 60 61 64 66 68 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 12 11 8 9 11 15 14 19 15 16 12 18 12 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 6 8 0 1 0 3 0 4 4 4 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 342 338 327 322 316 287 304 303 307 291 320 283 287 272 281 277 285 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 153 153 146 151 152 147 153 157 162 160 161 162 160 157 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 70 71 69 65 64 64 67 71 70 73 72 69 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 15 18 18 18 20 18 17 20 21 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 41 31 24 21 1 -19 -21 -32 -25 -31 -22 -23 -27 -42 -24 200 MB DIV 41 38 16 3 16 39 62 23 8 8 60 46 60 59 60 70 41 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -8 -6 2 12 7 6 7 13 12 15 19 28 LAND (KM) 1481 1581 1517 1474 1455 1410 1143 947 863 563 362 285 145 215 354 540 840 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.7 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.7 31.5 33.2 34.9 36.6 40.3 44.1 47.8 51.3 54.3 56.9 58.9 60.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 10 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 30 26 24 23 30 35 47 54 60 65 62 63 58 51 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 44. 47. 50. 50. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 9. 6. 4. 7. 7. 8. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 33. 37. 40. 39. 39. 44. 45. 47. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.4 29.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.54 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 17.0% 11.6% 8.7% 6.6% 11.2% 11.8% 20.4% Logistic: 3.3% 14.4% 7.4% 2.5% 1.2% 4.4% 5.1% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.8% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% Consensus: 2.6% 12.1% 7.0% 3.7% 2.6% 5.4% 6.2% 11.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.8% 9.0% 4.5% 2.3% 1.3% 3.7% 4.1% 7.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/05/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 51 59 63 67 70 69 69 74 75 77 81 80 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 48 56 60 64 67 66 66 71 72 74 78 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 50 54 58 61 60 60 65 66 68 72 71 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 40 44 48 51 50 50 55 56 58 62 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT