* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 55 60 66 71 74 76 77 82 83 91 97 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 55 60 66 71 74 76 77 82 83 91 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 47 51 54 58 61 63 66 70 75 81 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 13 13 11 11 12 13 12 18 13 13 8 14 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 0 4 0 1 3 7 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 33 329 330 318 303 293 295 306 297 298 300 327 303 303 289 279 277 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.1 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 150 146 144 143 147 156 164 160 165 164 165 165 162 150 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 73 72 71 66 64 63 66 67 70 70 70 68 67 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 14 18 19 19 20 20 20 20 22 22 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 49 40 38 28 17 -5 -16 -19 -26 -14 -18 -1 -17 -21 -40 200 MB DIV 51 41 29 6 2 48 50 66 19 22 20 58 52 49 64 65 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -5 -3 14 10 3 0 5 7 10 12 20 LAND (KM) 1257 1398 1554 1575 1530 1511 1297 1064 879 653 359 258 102 88 180 319 527 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.6 11.5 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.8 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.9 30.5 32.3 34.1 38.0 42.1 46.1 50.0 53.4 56.4 58.8 60.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 30 28 24 22 24 35 42 54 57 66 64 62 65 61 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 40. 44. 47. 50. 51. 54. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 8. 7. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 25. 30. 36. 41. 44. 46. 47. 52. 53. 61. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.1 27.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.52 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.71 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 16.1% 11.0% 8.0% 6.1% 10.5% 11.5% 20.4% Logistic: 4.5% 18.6% 9.8% 3.3% 1.8% 5.3% 7.2% 17.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 5.7% 7.4% Consensus: 2.9% 13.9% 7.3% 3.8% 2.7% 5.6% 8.1% 15.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/05/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 46 55 60 66 71 74 76 77 82 83 91 97 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 52 57 63 68 71 73 74 79 80 88 94 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 46 51 57 62 65 67 68 73 74 82 88 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 38 43 49 54 57 59 60 65 66 74 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT