* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 10/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 42 49 57 65 70 73 76 80 83 87 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 42 49 57 65 70 73 76 80 83 87 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 42 46 49 52 56 58 60 64 69 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 4 8 13 11 9 11 11 12 17 15 11 11 11 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 10 8 8 8 6 7 2 1 0 3 2 4 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 78 30 315 325 313 290 289 302 300 296 287 324 295 311 287 296 285 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.3 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 146 148 143 145 144 155 163 164 163 168 164 167 166 158 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 72 70 68 64 65 64 66 69 70 69 68 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 13 16 18 19 20 19 19 20 21 23 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 47 55 51 52 42 31 23 1 -14 -13 -20 -9 -16 -10 -14 -21 -32 200 MB DIV 54 51 44 33 6 21 52 67 22 14 23 45 47 67 53 76 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -7 -3 5 11 6 6 3 8 10 16 15 LAND (KM) 1113 1243 1391 1559 1605 1531 1448 1160 934 803 473 261 171 36 85 217 395 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 10.4 11.2 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.9 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.3 28.9 30.6 32.3 36.2 40.2 44.3 48.3 52.0 55.1 57.8 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 17 18 20 20 20 19 17 15 13 11 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 31 30 29 26 22 21 30 36 50 54 63 67 62 63 63 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 14. 22. 29. 37. 43. 47. 51. 54. 56. 58. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 9. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 17. 24. 32. 40. 45. 48. 51. 55. 58. 62. 68. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 25.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 10/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.5% 10.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 29.3% 15.9% 6.7% 4.3% 11.0% 15.3% 31.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 13.6% 3.4% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0% 6.0% 9.4% Consensus: 3.9% 19.5% 9.9% 4.9% 1.5% 4.3% 10.7% 13.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 10/05/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 35 42 49 57 65 70 73 76 80 83 87 93 98 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 38 45 53 61 66 69 72 76 79 83 89 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 47 55 60 63 66 70 73 77 83 88 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 39 47 52 55 58 62 65 69 75 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT