* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 08/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 44 45 43 39 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 44 45 43 39 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 42 40 36 32 29 25 22 20 18 17 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 16 21 20 28 33 44 47 47 42 45 47 42 45 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 5 3 2 0 -2 0 8 4 2 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 258 263 252 261 251 279 277 275 279 284 285 277 267 278 279 274 259 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.9 27.3 26.3 26.7 26.9 25.6 24.7 24.2 23.5 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 144 141 139 130 123 128 118 123 125 113 106 102 96 91 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.8 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 55 52 44 42 47 50 51 44 39 33 30 30 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 16 18 -2 -17 -22 -9 7 2 -6 -35 -64 -95 -97 -72 -49 200 MB DIV 34 35 4 5 14 -8 -2 32 31 6 7 0 7 -19 -34 2 -3 700-850 TADV 4 1 5 6 1 6 1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -7 -32 -26 -30 -22 -25 LAND (KM) 484 563 634 720 702 709 683 722 808 894 977 1111 1384 1756 1765 1515 1338 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.0 34.5 35.2 35.9 36.9 37.9 38.6 38.9 38.6 38.5 39.0 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 69.9 68.9 67.8 66.7 64.5 62.3 59.8 56.4 52.6 48.6 44.3 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 12 14 15 16 19 21 18 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 14 16 16 18 14 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -24. -23. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.7 71.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.2% 9.8% 7.2% 5.3% 8.9% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 6.5% 6.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.9% 5.6% 2.9% 1.8% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 5.9% 4.3% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 08/03/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 44 45 43 39 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 41 39 35 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 35 33 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT