* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 08/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 42 41 38 32 27 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 42 41 38 32 27 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 35 34 32 30 27 24 21 19 17 16 17 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 19 22 27 30 34 41 46 49 49 51 40 35 30 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 -2 0 1 3 4 0 0 1 11 8 0 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 278 261 271 261 260 264 283 270 269 274 268 247 232 240 224 220 221 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.7 28.0 27.5 27.3 26.3 25.8 25.1 23.8 23.5 24.0 23.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 147 144 141 133 137 131 129 119 115 109 101 99 99 93 86 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.7 -53.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 -54.0 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 55 54 46 45 46 48 45 45 37 33 33 28 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 15 15 14 14 13 10 10 9 9 9 10 13 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 25 25 20 22 -7 -17 -10 13 32 5 -28 -53 -86 -89 -95 -85 200 MB DIV 32 44 30 8 -6 6 -4 18 36 7 13 22 3 -3 0 -3 -10 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 5 6 4 3 0 -9 -14 -5 -11 -29 -39 -25 -17 -7 LAND (KM) 401 465 546 620 700 693 687 693 736 813 840 957 1242 1648 1570 1337 1247 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.9 34.2 34.7 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.4 39.1 39.3 39.5 40.4 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.2 71.1 70.0 69.0 68.0 65.5 63.3 60.8 57.8 54.0 49.7 44.9 39.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 13 16 17 20 23 22 15 8 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 14 18 17 17 8 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -9. -15. -20. -24. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -8. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 11. 8. 2. -3. -8. -14. -17. -18. -13. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.5 72.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.6% 7.8% 5.4% 4.0% 7.9% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.4% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 08/03/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 42 41 38 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 39 38 35 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 34 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 26 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT