* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 08/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 44 46 46 42 37 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 44 46 46 42 37 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 37 34 32 30 27 24 21 19 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 16 13 14 18 24 21 30 34 45 44 44 50 55 54 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 -1 0 5 4 1 4 0 0 2 3 -3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 277 282 266 262 255 253 286 276 271 267 271 270 262 246 253 266 278 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.8 26.8 25.3 23.9 23.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 144 140 131 135 131 130 123 123 124 110 100 98 99 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 57 54 45 44 50 51 49 45 41 36 34 34 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 16 16 15 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -2 14 24 25 18 20 -11 -8 -3 14 20 -5 -35 -57 -85 -91 -90 200 MB DIV 31 28 45 47 18 22 -17 -12 22 34 15 21 -2 29 0 -14 -5 700-850 TADV 4 3 5 4 5 6 6 6 0 -11 -11 -1 0 5 9 10 5 LAND (KM) 325 393 457 524 593 715 718 726 728 798 923 946 989 1043 1186 1444 1768 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.3 33.6 33.9 34.4 35.6 36.5 37.3 37.9 38.3 38.3 38.2 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.5 72.5 71.4 70.4 69.4 67.3 65.0 63.0 61.1 58.5 55.1 51.6 48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 9 8 9 12 14 13 14 16 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 14 13 17 17 16 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 14. 16. 16. 12. 7. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -19. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.2 73.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 15.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.5% 10.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.6% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 7.2% 5.4% 2.7% 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 08/03/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 39 44 46 46 42 37 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 41 43 43 39 34 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 35 37 37 33 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 28 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT