* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL952025 08/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 51 51 47 41 37 31 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 51 51 47 41 37 31 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 42 40 38 36 34 31 28 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 11 8 15 20 17 19 30 36 44 42 44 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 2 5 2 -1 3 0 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 283 290 279 276 269 280 294 275 272 265 273 271 256 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 154 153 151 145 141 133 133 132 130 128 123 122 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 61 60 59 50 46 47 52 50 49 43 42 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 13 24 24 31 -2 -10 -12 6 17 21 -2 -32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 28 33 44 49 1 0 -25 1 11 -7 12 -9 23 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 5 4 6 5 8 7 9 1 -5 -14 -7 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 352 419 472 532 661 757 764 768 779 868 995 1002 983 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.7 32.8 33.1 33.4 34.5 35.5 36.4 37.0 37.6 37.8 37.7 37.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.6 73.6 72.6 71.6 70.6 68.6 66.3 64.3 62.6 60.6 57.9 54.7 51.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 9 12 13 12 14 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 20 17 15 14 13 15 16 14 7 6 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -8. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 17. 11. 7. 1. -4. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.8 74.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 14.5% 9.8% 6.7% 5.1% 10.2% 10.6% 15.5% Logistic: 3.3% 10.7% 7.6% 1.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 8.4% 5.8% 2.7% 1.8% 3.7% 3.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952025 INVEST 08/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952025 INVEST 08/03/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 46 50 51 51 47 41 37 31 26 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 47 48 48 44 38 34 28 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 41 42 42 38 32 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 33 33 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT