* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 39 41 40 40 40 40 41 44 48 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 39 41 40 40 40 40 32 28 32 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 22 22 25 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 13 16 22 20 27 23 30 31 37 25 21 7 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -4 -5 1 3 6 7 1 SHEAR DIR 290 276 288 288 270 273 270 278 279 289 277 299 276 279 259 239 137 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.6 28.3 28.4 29.2 30.6 30.9 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 139 142 145 148 151 150 149 147 134 144 146 158 174 174 174 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 9 7 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 52 54 55 56 56 55 56 58 58 59 62 65 68 71 76 78 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 -3 3 1 -6 6 25 33 38 60 52 56 67 62 52 31 200 MB DIV -18 -21 -15 7 26 26 21 45 45 41 27 22 39 30 42 42 30 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 -8 -6 -9 -2 -2 -2 1 7 3 8 7 LAND (KM) 777 796 673 545 430 178 17 275 370 226 304 369 139 -125 -115 97 206 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 52.0 53.2 54.4 55.5 58.1 60.8 63.7 66.9 70.4 74.0 77.9 81.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 40 42 44 49 49 45 49 40 47 56 42 41 42 41 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 42. 45. 49. 52. 55. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -29. -32. -33. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. 19. 23. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 50.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 14.5% 9.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 7.9% 5.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.5% 3.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 39 41 40 40 40 40 32 28 32 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 31 35 38 40 39 39 39 39 31 27 31 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 27 31 34 36 35 35 35 35 27 23 27 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 26 28 27 27 27 27 19 15 19 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT