* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 41 43 44 44 45 46 47 48 52 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 41 43 44 44 45 46 37 31 37 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 28 27 25 26 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 14 17 20 20 22 26 30 28 33 24 22 14 9 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 -5 -5 -2 -4 -3 4 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 9 318 292 303 308 281 286 287 299 284 290 282 292 282 291 310 331 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.4 28.1 28.1 28.9 30.4 30.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 149 148 145 148 151 152 150 146 132 141 141 153 174 174 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 9 11 9 9 8 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 58 58 58 60 63 59 62 61 65 69 71 75 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 18 10 7 7 0 5 26 29 49 59 58 60 59 63 41 12 200 MB DIV -6 -6 -14 -22 6 27 52 54 40 40 29 31 41 59 54 43 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -4 -4 -7 -9 0 -5 -7 0 -4 3 7 -1 6 LAND (KM) 657 645 636 510 383 122 14 257 363 189 251 406 232 -158 -19 138 349 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 13.7 14.0 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.4 53.7 54.8 55.9 58.3 60.8 63.6 66.7 70.0 73.6 77.3 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 13 15 15 17 17 18 18 19 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 42 44 46 49 47 41 47 37 41 50 41 6 48 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 33. 38. 43. 47. 51. 53. 57. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 27. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 50.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 15.0% 10.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 13.2% 8.3% 4.1% 1.8% 6.8% 4.8% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 2.0% 11.1% 6.7% 3.9% 0.6% 2.4% 5.0% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 34 38 41 43 44 44 45 46 37 31 37 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 37 40 42 43 43 44 45 36 30 36 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 36 38 39 39 40 41 32 26 32 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 24 18 24 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT