* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/21/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 39 42 46 47 48 47 47 47 48 47 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 39 42 46 47 48 47 47 47 48 36 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 33 32 30 29 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 11 15 19 25 22 26 24 35 31 36 31 26 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -6 -5 -2 -6 -3 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 26 8 302 285 293 285 283 281 291 272 280 270 291 282 288 274 291 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 30.2 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 133 137 140 143 151 152 151 148 138 150 147 149 174 174 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 55 55 57 57 57 58 58 61 62 65 67 69 73 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 15 3 -5 0 -6 0 15 32 38 56 60 44 63 40 38 200 MB DIV 12 1 2 -4 -5 -8 16 17 43 20 35 14 15 34 30 31 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -9 -10 -3 -5 -10 -1 0 -5 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 786 781 787 799 695 462 223 70 217 381 257 305 330 164 -78 -110 9 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.7 50.8 51.9 53.0 55.2 57.6 60.2 63.2 66.2 69.8 73.6 77.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 13 13 15 15 18 19 19 20 20 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 32 35 39 43 48 49 45 50 42 51 59 43 39 28 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 42. 45. 49. 51. 55. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 17. 21. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. 22. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 48.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.7% 11.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 24.9% 17.4% 7.9% 3.3% 13.1% 7.0% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.0% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% Consensus: 3.4% 19.6% 11.1% 5.6% 1.1% 4.9% 6.1% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 10.8% 6.0% 3.3% .5% 2.4% 3.0% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/21/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 35 39 42 46 47 48 47 47 47 48 36 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 35 38 42 43 44 43 43 43 44 32 26 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 32 36 37 38 37 37 37 38 26 20 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 24 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT