* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/21/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 40 42 45 46 45 47 48 48 45 44 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 40 42 45 46 45 47 48 48 45 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 20 21 23 24 24 23 22 20 19 19 18 16 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 6 9 16 22 25 26 24 29 25 33 31 36 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -5 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 68 27 11 330 304 293 272 270 266 264 256 271 271 282 278 265 258 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 134 133 135 134 140 143 151 152 152 149 148 148 150 153 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 57 56 57 57 59 60 60 62 62 63 63 65 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 15 11 -3 -8 -16 -12 1 13 27 31 42 55 41 44 55 200 MB DIV 32 27 9 0 -4 -8 8 25 18 50 32 14 14 46 27 27 57 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -5 0 0 -4 -8 -3 -1 -2 -5 -8 3 LAND (KM) 833 824 824 815 826 739 523 316 154 101 334 337 287 267 262 144 118 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.5 14.2 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.9 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.7 48.6 49.6 50.6 52.6 54.7 56.9 59.4 62.2 65.2 68.6 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 27 28 31 38 41 47 48 48 50 48 49 65 62 47 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 39. 44. 48. 52. 54. 57. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 22. 25. 26. 25. 27. 28. 28. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 46.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 18.0% 9.7% 3.9% 2.3% 8.7% 11.8% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 5.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 7.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.8% 3.0% 4.1% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 4.3% 1.8% .6% .4% 1.5% 2.0% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/21/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 34 40 42 45 46 45 47 48 48 45 44 44 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 38 40 43 44 43 45 46 46 43 42 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 33 35 38 39 38 40 41 41 38 37 37 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT