* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/21/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 35 43 47 49 50 52 52 54 53 52 50 50 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 35 43 47 49 50 51 52 54 53 51 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 20 21 24 26 27 26 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 7 4 13 18 22 24 22 21 32 28 35 29 31 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 -6 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 68 68 56 45 353 306 278 275 266 275 254 268 258 286 273 281 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 137 133 135 135 140 143 151 152 152 148 144 150 149 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 61 58 55 56 56 59 61 62 62 64 64 68 69 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 32 23 16 -6 -4 -16 0 11 32 40 48 54 41 43 28 200 MB DIV 17 31 31 13 15 -16 -6 21 36 44 40 9 13 23 30 20 17 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -2 -4 0 -6 -5 -5 -5 -10 -11 0 0 -3 -5 4 LAND (KM) 840 832 813 803 799 760 550 330 156 106 334 302 272 299 340 25 46 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 12.1 13.1 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.1 48.1 49.1 50.2 52.4 54.4 56.7 59.3 62.2 65.2 68.7 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 13 15 15 18 18 18 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 28 30 37 41 47 48 48 50 47 48 63 54 44 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 39. 44. 48. 52. 54. 58. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -24. -29. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 23. 27. 29. 30. 32. 32. 34. 33. 32. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 46.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 18.3% 10.1% 4.2% 2.3% 8.2% 12.7% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% Consensus: 1.1% 7.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.8% 2.8% 4.5% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/21/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/21/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 29 35 43 47 49 50 51 52 54 53 51 50 50 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 27 33 41 45 47 48 49 50 52 51 49 48 48 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 22 28 36 40 42 43 44 45 47 46 44 43 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT