* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942025 07/20/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 54 56 55 55 57 58 57 56 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 54 56 55 55 57 58 57 56 55 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 39 42 42 40 38 37 35 34 32 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 9 8 8 16 23 21 26 23 30 27 34 29 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 1 -2 -5 -4 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 54 68 68 43 16 301 305 276 279 276 275 266 279 271 287 279 274 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.6 28.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 139 137 136 135 140 143 149 150 152 149 148 141 148 147 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 11 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 58 55 57 57 59 62 61 64 62 62 65 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 39 32 27 4 -3 -16 -9 5 19 38 37 56 60 61 66 200 MB DIV 17 10 23 6 2 -8 5 -4 33 34 22 12 15 26 43 52 38 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 0 0 0 -7 -6 -8 -2 -9 -7 -3 -6 0 7 LAND (KM) 839 803 774 750 751 772 555 340 147 35 321 378 244 332 388 128 -136 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.5 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.6 47.8 48.9 49.9 52.1 54.3 56.4 58.8 61.4 64.3 67.3 70.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 29 29 30 36 41 47 48 48 47 51 41 50 54 40 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 20. 26. 33. 38. 42. 46. 50. 52. 55. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -23. -28. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 29. 31. 30. 30. 32. 33. 32. 31. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.2 45.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 07/20/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 15.0% 9.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 18.7% 12.1% 4.5% 2.0% 8.3% 13.3% 16.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 2.0% 1.7% Consensus: 1.9% 12.8% 7.8% 3.9% 0.7% 2.9% 9.0% 5.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 07/20/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 07/20/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 54 56 55 55 57 58 57 56 55 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 47 51 53 52 52 54 55 54 53 52 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 46 48 47 47 49 50 49 48 47 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 37 39 38 38 40 41 40 39 38 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT