* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 44 51 59 66 71 73 78 79 75 75 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 44 51 59 66 71 73 78 79 75 75 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 42 46 50 55 60 65 67 68 70 73 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 17 22 22 23 16 14 18 20 21 20 17 19 33 46 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -4 -5 -6 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 3 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 295 271 277 284 281 275 281 288 307 304 319 301 276 235 213 205 210 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 150 151 148 150 152 154 154 157 157 156 140 133 127 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 60 60 64 64 65 62 67 68 73 70 63 65 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 8 10 12 15 18 20 22 25 27 25 29 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -68 -64 -69 -73 -42 -32 -10 -19 6 10 44 64 103 109 151 170 200 MB DIV 17 39 51 40 9 44 11 36 64 85 65 111 85 81 104 151 182 700-850 TADV 2 1 -6 -3 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -9 -5 1 11 22 25 23 14 LAND (KM) 864 737 656 617 608 623 608 605 604 649 749 778 798 708 540 504 627 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.6 25.5 26.7 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.2 56.4 57.4 58.2 59.1 60.2 61.3 62.8 64.3 66.2 68.1 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 11 8 5 5 6 7 8 11 11 12 9 7 10 17 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 47 46 44 43 44 48 51 47 40 40 33 28 24 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 21. 17. 21. 25. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 21. 29. 36. 41. 43. 48. 49. 45. 45. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 53.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 8.4% 6.4% 4.9% 9.7% 11.0% 19.6% Logistic: 1.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.3% 4.1% 5.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 5.6% 3.3% 2.4% 1.7% 4.0% 5.1% 8.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.8% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 2.0% 2.5% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 38 44 51 59 66 71 73 78 79 75 75 74 74 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 41 48 56 63 68 70 75 76 72 72 71 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 36 43 51 58 63 65 70 71 67 67 66 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 27 34 42 49 54 56 61 62 58 58 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT