* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 48 53 56 57 58 61 67 67 62 57 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 43 48 53 56 57 58 61 67 67 62 57 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 39 41 42 43 44 45 48 53 55 54 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 7 15 24 24 25 20 25 21 25 21 33 40 49 59 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -3 -4 -7 -4 -1 -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -4 -4 -9 SHEAR DIR 299 305 280 268 286 275 289 294 307 301 286 242 215 191 196 203 230 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.4 26.8 27.7 24.5 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 148 147 147 148 152 155 152 154 145 124 133 97 125 121 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 4 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 59 59 61 64 63 60 61 62 64 67 64 52 39 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 11 12 12 14 16 21 25 26 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -81 -82 -79 -80 -65 -45 -40 -32 -19 -8 23 52 62 75 129 99 200 MB DIV -7 8 32 47 32 36 25 44 21 51 67 71 101 124 101 101 21 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 -6 -9 -12 4 8 4 -4 -16 -32 LAND (KM) 1011 903 804 741 700 712 716 719 746 838 985 845 501 256 200 246 487 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.0 23.2 23.8 24.4 25.2 26.3 28.0 30.5 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.5 54.8 55.9 56.9 58.3 59.4 60.7 62.3 64.3 66.6 69.0 71.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 13 12 11 7 6 7 10 11 16 16 16 11 2 8 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 45 45 43 41 39 42 42 34 27 22 17 26 6 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 17 CX,CY: -11/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 22. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 14. 17. 17. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 31. 37. 37. 32. 27. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 52.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.67 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 13.9% 9.6% 7.4% 5.7% 10.3% 10.8% 17.5% Logistic: 2.2% 6.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.6% 7.0% 10.4% 10.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 8.0% 4.2% 3.0% 2.1% 5.9% 7.2% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.5% 2.6% 2.5% 1.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 43 48 53 56 57 58 61 67 67 62 57 50 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 40 45 50 53 54 55 58 64 64 59 54 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 35 40 45 48 49 50 53 59 59 54 49 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 32 37 40 41 42 45 51 51 46 41 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT