* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 42 49 55 59 61 62 61 63 63 62 55 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 42 49 55 59 61 62 61 63 63 62 55 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 41 43 44 46 46 47 49 48 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 15 9 13 23 23 22 25 26 32 30 22 36 41 47 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -4 -6 -7 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 2 0 0 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 293 303 316 310 294 302 279 297 299 313 309 316 259 215 201 206 213 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 26.8 26.7 27.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 147 150 148 146 148 149 151 155 154 153 149 124 121 125 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.2 1.0 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 60 61 58 62 60 58 58 59 60 65 67 65 60 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 14 16 17 19 21 26 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -61 -76 -78 -76 -84 -53 -48 -43 -27 -8 -2 24 52 41 85 135 200 MB DIV 19 -4 12 42 42 4 35 9 39 55 56 74 70 69 153 144 45 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 2 -1 -4 -1 -1 -3 -2 -17 -12 -6 17 8 -10 -58 LAND (KM) 1087 1008 947 842 762 692 692 699 709 734 830 1015 911 546 364 357 529 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.9 22.8 23.5 24.2 25.0 26.2 28.0 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.6 52.9 54.1 55.2 56.9 58.0 59.2 60.4 62.0 63.7 65.9 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 13 12 9 6 7 7 9 11 15 17 16 9 6 12 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 45 44 45 44 42 40 41 43 36 26 21 16 23 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 13. 18. 15. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 37. 36. 38. 38. 37. 30. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 50.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 15.0% 10.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 20.1% 9.3% 4.6% 2.6% 13.0% 32.3% 39.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 15.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 16.9% 7.4% 4.2% 0.9% 4.7% 15.1% 13.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.9% 9.4% 4.2% 2.1% 0.4% 2.3% 7.5% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 42 49 55 59 61 62 61 63 63 62 55 45 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 38 45 51 55 57 58 57 59 59 58 51 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 40 46 50 52 53 52 54 54 53 46 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 37 41 43 44 43 45 45 44 37 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT