* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 52 55 56 56 61 67 67 64 63 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 52 55 56 56 61 67 67 64 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 40 41 42 44 47 51 54 55 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 15 10 17 20 25 20 24 24 27 22 35 43 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -6 -6 -5 -7 -5 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 285 292 301 311 312 293 284 292 298 300 287 268 236 214 198 216 233 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 27.4 26.7 26.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 149 150 149 148 149 151 155 152 153 155 130 119 119 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -53.7 -53.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 2 4 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 58 60 61 60 65 62 62 61 59 64 63 59 52 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 9 9 11 12 16 20 23 26 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -37 -58 -72 -76 -84 -70 -43 -38 -30 -31 -25 -3 41 50 70 103 200 MB DIV 38 12 -1 14 54 13 29 20 24 35 61 56 92 84 100 66 37 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 -1 0 -5 -7 -3 -1 3 3 -2 -10 LAND (KM) 1177 1081 984 914 809 685 678 687 713 755 884 1079 907 641 491 538 820 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.8 21.2 22.5 23.3 24.2 25.2 26.7 28.6 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.3 51.8 53.2 54.4 56.4 57.8 59.0 60.3 62.0 63.9 65.8 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 13 11 8 7 8 10 12 14 14 12 6 8 15 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 47 46 45 46 43 40 41 42 33 25 19 15 17 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 14. 17. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 36. 42. 42. 39. 38. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 49.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 14.8% 10.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 12.9% 5.3% 1.7% 0.8% 6.4% 21.5% 33.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 11.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 1.6% 1.9% 0.4% Consensus: 2.0% 13.1% 5.7% 3.1% 0.3% 2.7% 12.1% 11.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 7.0% 3.3% 2.0% 0.1% 1.3% 6.0% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 41 47 52 55 56 56 61 67 67 64 63 59 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 44 49 52 53 53 58 64 64 61 60 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 44 47 48 48 53 59 59 56 55 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 36 39 40 40 45 51 51 48 47 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT