* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 46 48 50 55 62 69 71 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 46 48 50 55 62 69 71 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 16 19 20 15 21 15 15 17 21 20 16 20 19 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -6 -7 -6 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 276 286 291 300 314 313 312 297 297 294 305 289 277 244 235 241 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 151 152 152 152 149 151 154 157 154 156 155 148 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -53.8 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 63 63 66 62 65 65 63 62 62 59 58 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 12 15 20 23 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -22 -32 -48 -61 -66 -73 -54 -42 -30 -31 -13 -17 4 15 31 58 200 MB DIV 0 33 19 9 19 38 16 53 11 33 33 45 55 72 74 94 61 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 3 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 0 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1191 1133 1011 895 811 653 573 587 633 707 794 950 1152 979 823 773 768 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.7 19.3 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 27.3 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.2 50.6 52.1 53.5 55.8 57.5 58.7 59.9 61.1 62.5 63.9 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 16 15 12 10 7 8 8 10 11 12 9 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 47 51 51 51 48 45 42 43 39 29 25 18 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 36. 36. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -1. 3. 9. 12. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 23. 26. 28. 30. 35. 42. 49. 51. 49. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 48.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.2% 5.7% 2.1% 0.8% 6.0% 9.6% 31.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Consensus: 0.7% 4.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 2.1% 3.4% 10.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 30 36 43 46 48 50 55 62 69 71 69 68 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 28 34 41 44 46 48 53 60 67 69 67 66 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 24 30 37 40 42 44 49 56 63 65 63 62 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT