* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL932025 09/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 27 33 38 42 45 47 51 59 66 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 27 33 38 42 45 47 51 59 66 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 33 38 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 18 23 18 20 17 15 14 18 17 17 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -6 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 279 289 294 298 321 309 302 290 290 291 292 256 231 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 154 152 154 156 157 151 153 153 153 155 156 148 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 65 67 69 71 69 68 70 66 66 63 63 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 8 10 14 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -2 -17 -25 -34 -52 -50 -51 -39 -22 -21 -24 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 6 32 49 16 42 38 49 30 34 42 45 71 74 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 2 4 -5 -3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1135 1103 956 825 710 578 438 453 511 590 689 851 1009 991 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.5 18.1 19.7 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.9 26.4 28.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.6 49.3 50.8 52.3 53.8 56.3 58.2 59.6 60.8 62.0 63.4 64.8 66.3 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 13 11 8 8 9 9 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 44 49 54 54 57 54 50 51 51 46 33 27 24 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. 1. 5. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 31. 39. 46. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.2 47.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.85 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 3.9% 7.8% 26.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 1.2% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 2.9% 9.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 09/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 09/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 22 27 33 38 42 45 47 51 59 66 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 26 32 37 41 44 46 50 58 65 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 22 28 33 37 40 42 46 54 61 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT