* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932025 07/15/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 34 36 36 38 34 34 37 39 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 28 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 26 26 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 32 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 21 14 11 19 8 15 6 9 5 2 7 10 16 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -7 -2 -2 -5 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 350 4 22 36 22 42 57 46 5 55 58 238 308 342 357 5 26 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 28.2 27.4 29.8 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.8 28.8 28.9 27.8 27.1 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 138 128 165 171 171 170 170 148 150 133 124 144 140 130 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 7 10 6 10 3 9 4 7 4 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 65 64 65 66 65 67 67 57 54 53 57 66 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -4 -8 -5 -23 -58 -64 -97 -59 -44 -41 -55 -58 -45 -31 4 12 200 MB DIV 17 13 13 27 15 4 31 12 24 -1 20 -14 -35 -26 15 -6 4 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -5 -6 -3 -7 1 1 6 3 11 -6 5 0 11 9 12 LAND (KM) 157 105 36 -28 -74 11 -102 -227 -380 -463 -363 -249 -114 -29 80 274 588 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.8 30.9 32.4 33.8 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.6 80.3 81.0 81.9 83.7 85.2 86.3 86.2 84.9 82.5 80.5 78.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 9 9 9 8 7 10 9 9 7 7 9 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 45 39 19 15 8 29 12 4 4 4 4 3 2 9 12 21 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 9. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.9 79.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932025 INVEST 07/15/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 16.6% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 21.2% 11.8% 2.3% 1.0% 7.5% 12.8% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.9% 13.3% 7.8% 3.4% 0.3% 2.6% 8.3% 7.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 6.6% 3.9% 1.7% .1% 1.3% 4.1% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932025 INVEST 07/15/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932025 INVEST 07/15/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 28 27 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 25 24 27 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 27 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 22 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 22 22 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT