* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 44 48 44 43 44 45 49 54 57 62 66 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 44 48 44 43 44 45 49 54 57 62 66 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 35 34 31 30 30 31 35 39 43 48 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 15 18 23 24 19 20 16 12 8 13 12 6 5 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 3 7 -1 1 1 -1 1 0 4 3 0 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 288 260 246 243 250 271 254 246 257 254 223 239 243 303 290 285 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 143 140 138 140 144 144 150 149 148 152 155 158 158 157 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 71 70 68 62 53 52 51 54 56 55 57 60 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 21 21 21 23 19 17 17 16 18 21 22 25 28 31 850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 51 49 36 11 26 23 25 19 -1 3 4 6 -3 -25 -18 200 MB DIV 116 135 140 123 129 54 28 -11 -3 8 29 17 -17 16 14 5 38 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 6 5 12 11 -6 0 -4 -1 0 4 7 3 16 11 LAND (KM) 1438 1452 1475 1504 1542 1436 1299 1128 908 798 770 779 803 905 1073 1245 1265 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 12 13 11 11 10 8 8 10 10 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 32 33 32 34 37 41 46 45 42 41 42 37 32 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. -1. -3. -5. -7. -5. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 18. 14. 14. 14. 15. 19. 24. 27. 32. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 42.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 16.6% 10.8% 7.2% 5.4% 10.1% 10.4% 17.1% Logistic: 2.1% 9.1% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.4% 1.5% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 8.8% 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 3.8% 4.1% 7.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 7.9% 3.3% 1.9% 1.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/16/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 41 44 48 44 43 44 45 49 54 57 62 66 70 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 41 45 41 40 41 42 46 51 54 59 63 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 35 39 35 34 35 36 40 45 48 53 57 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 29 25 24 25 26 30 35 38 43 47 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT