* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 53 53 52 47 45 44 45 50 52 55 60 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 53 53 52 47 45 44 45 50 52 55 60 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 39 40 39 36 34 33 35 38 43 47 52 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 14 19 21 26 23 18 20 13 9 12 17 13 7 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 3 6 2 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 4 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 241 234 227 244 242 258 259 238 259 245 249 225 229 267 273 272 277 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 139 138 138 138 141 142 144 145 148 148 153 155 155 156 158 147 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 71 70 68 60 54 49 51 52 54 53 55 61 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 23 25 24 22 19 19 18 19 22 23 25 28 33 850 MB ENV VOR 91 74 59 47 40 20 26 40 25 27 10 14 7 23 8 17 -1 200 MB DIV 96 146 181 167 129 66 34 19 -7 0 17 29 3 -5 9 16 22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 0 8 13 13 -2 -4 -3 -3 -5 1 0 2 7 11 LAND (KM) 1485 1524 1570 1597 1620 1581 1458 1257 1104 963 866 842 905 966 1030 1169 1289 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 12 11 9 9 8 10 10 9 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 29 31 30 33 39 42 43 41 39 41 35 33 30 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -5. -2. -0. 1. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 23. 23. 22. 17. 15. 14. 15. 20. 22. 25. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 41.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.79 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 18.3% 11.8% 7.8% 5.6% 10.3% 10.3% 16.4% Logistic: 4.4% 17.3% 6.3% 2.0% 0.6% 1.9% 2.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 13.1% 6.4% 3.4% 2.3% 4.3% 4.4% 6.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.5% 12.5% 4.7% 2.2% 1.6% 2.6% 2.7% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/16/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 48 53 53 52 47 45 44 45 50 52 55 60 64 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 43 48 48 47 42 40 39 40 45 47 50 55 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 40 40 39 34 32 31 32 37 39 42 47 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 29 28 23 21 20 21 26 28 31 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT