* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/16/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 50 56 66 70 70 64 58 54 52 54 55 60 62 70 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 50 56 66 70 70 64 58 54 52 54 55 60 62 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 38 42 47 54 58 56 53 49 48 48 51 55 59 65 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 6 7 11 17 19 23 21 20 14 16 15 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 5 8 4 5 1 1 0 -4 -1 -3 5 4 5 6 1 SHEAR DIR 101 107 15 313 311 257 260 236 242 261 272 245 236 230 248 210 220 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 144 145 144 137 139 138 142 144 151 156 156 159 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 75 75 75 74 70 66 62 59 58 55 52 56 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 19 20 20 23 22 21 18 17 16 16 18 19 23 23 29 850 MB ENV VOR 94 100 95 85 73 45 13 16 22 16 9 -9 3 8 17 21 11 200 MB DIV 85 96 117 123 141 103 59 38 5 -19 4 11 11 -1 5 1 28 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 0 3 9 6 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 5 -2 6 8 LAND (KM) 1385 1321 1292 1280 1307 1418 1581 1659 1632 1488 1318 1159 1022 907 846 875 983 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.9 17.1 19.4 21.1 22.6 23.8 24.9 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.8 43.4 43.8 43.9 44.2 44.6 45.3 46.5 48.5 50.9 53.7 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 4 5 10 12 11 10 12 14 13 13 12 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 31 32 32 33 32 28 29 34 36 33 35 41 39 38 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 4. 3. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 26. 36. 40. 40. 34. 28. 24. 22. 24. 25. 30. 32. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 41.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 26.1% 12.7% 8.6% 6.4% 12.3% 14.2% 22.1% Logistic: 8.2% 35.0% 14.9% 7.9% 4.3% 14.0% 15.4% 15.5% Bayesian: 7.6% 41.6% 14.2% 2.6% 1.7% 15.3% 10.4% 1.6% Consensus: 6.4% 34.2% 13.9% 6.4% 4.2% 13.9% 13.3% 13.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 46.0% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 6.2% 40.1% 14.4% 6.2% 3.1% 9.4% 8.1% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/16/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 36 43 50 56 66 70 70 64 58 54 52 54 55 60 62 70 18HR AGO 30 29 36 43 49 59 63 63 57 51 47 45 47 48 53 55 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 39 49 53 53 47 41 37 35 37 38 43 45 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 36 40 40 34 28 24 22 24 25 30 32 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT