* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/16/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 36 44 52 65 73 75 75 69 67 68 68 73 76 83 84 V (KT) LAND 25 29 36 44 52 65 73 75 75 69 67 68 68 73 76 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 33 38 48 55 56 55 53 53 56 61 68 75 81 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 3 8 9 16 15 16 20 10 10 15 11 4 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 0 4 1 2 2 2 -3 -1 0 5 2 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 89 84 71 70 325 306 255 267 246 252 245 228 212 201 189 246 265 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 147 145 144 142 139 137 141 142 150 152 155 154 150 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 76 76 75 78 73 69 65 62 58 55 54 57 62 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 16 18 21 23 24 22 23 20 20 21 22 27 29 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR 93 103 106 102 90 61 32 5 16 18 21 12 16 30 43 37 24 200 MB DIV 89 91 104 126 125 116 82 60 48 -3 14 32 40 8 26 -1 7 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 7 5 1 -3 -3 -1 2 3 3 12 15 LAND (KM) 1446 1362 1306 1291 1293 1356 1522 1703 1710 1602 1436 1251 1135 1048 1020 1068 1210 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.8 15.8 18.3 20.5 22.2 23.8 24.9 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.1 42.9 43.3 43.5 43.7 43.8 44.4 45.3 47.2 49.6 52.5 55.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 4 3 8 12 13 11 13 14 14 11 9 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 30 31 31 31 32 28 27 31 36 33 33 35 34 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 38. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 12. 8. 7. 8. 8. 13. 15. 21. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 19. 27. 40. 48. 50. 50. 44. 42. 43. 43. 48. 51. 58. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 41.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 17.6% 11.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 17.8% 5.5% 1.6% 0.7% 4.0% 11.5% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 18.9% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 4.7% 5.2% 0.6% Consensus: 2.0% 18.1% 6.6% 3.2% 0.3% 2.9% 10.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 25.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.0% 21.5% 5.3% 2.1% 0.1% 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/16/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/16/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 36 44 52 65 73 75 75 69 67 68 68 73 76 83 84 18HR AGO 25 24 31 39 47 60 68 70 70 64 62 63 63 68 71 78 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 29 37 50 58 60 60 54 52 53 53 58 61 68 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 23 36 44 46 46 40 38 39 39 44 47 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT