* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/15/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 58 68 74 75 72 71 67 67 70 71 75 79 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 58 68 74 75 72 71 67 67 70 71 75 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 40 50 60 65 65 61 58 56 56 59 64 68 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 4 1 4 10 17 15 18 18 15 12 15 13 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -2 3 5 4 3 2 0 0 -1 -3 0 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 86 106 101 226 338 261 263 247 257 250 273 231 225 208 247 261 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 148 148 144 145 139 139 139 142 145 148 152 153 158 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 74 75 75 75 76 72 67 63 63 62 59 60 64 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 18 20 22 22 20 21 20 19 22 23 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR 95 94 99 102 97 77 43 9 7 6 16 -4 -7 -2 6 1 10 200 MB DIV 67 83 70 73 90 106 114 84 82 27 -6 -15 7 32 8 3 50 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 0 1 6 7 9 2 3 -1 3 3 11 16 26 LAND (KM) 1552 1460 1385 1329 1307 1290 1392 1545 1638 1624 1536 1434 1331 1286 1310 1375 1468 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.2 14.6 16.7 18.9 20.8 22.6 24.3 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.0 42.0 42.7 43.2 43.9 44.2 44.6 45.3 46.4 48.0 49.9 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 5 4 9 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 28 30 31 32 33 33 28 29 33 34 31 31 27 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 10. 7. 5. 8. 8. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 33. 43. 49. 50. 47. 46. 42. 42. 45. 46. 50. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 39.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/15/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.91 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.74 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 27.7% 13.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 43.4% 21.7% 6.9% 3.9% 17.6% 21.0% 32.5% Bayesian: 2.5% 31.9% 7.9% 1.2% 0.6% 10.8% 15.0% 10.0% Consensus: 3.6% 34.4% 14.3% 5.7% 1.5% 9.5% 17.5% 14.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.8% 22.7% 8.6% 3.3% 0.7% 5.2% 9.2% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/15/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/15/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 34 41 47 58 68 74 75 72 71 67 67 70 71 75 79 18HR AGO 25 24 29 36 42 53 63 69 70 67 66 62 62 65 66 70 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 28 34 45 55 61 62 59 58 54 54 57 58 62 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 32 42 48 49 46 45 41 41 44 45 49 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT