* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL922025 09/15/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 46 58 69 75 74 69 63 63 62 64 70 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 46 58 69 75 74 69 63 63 62 64 70 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 40 51 61 66 63 57 52 50 49 53 60 65 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 10 5 6 12 18 15 23 24 14 12 14 15 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -8 -10 -2 5 0 2 7 1 -3 0 0 0 1 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 312 72 86 81 58 300 273 261 244 231 257 251 255 205 206 197 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 151 150 149 149 143 136 136 137 140 142 148 151 155 156 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 76 77 76 76 76 75 77 74 67 63 62 57 55 54 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 16 20 22 23 22 20 18 18 17 18 23 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 94 95 99 101 101 80 56 27 9 12 15 16 -7 0 13 22 28 200 MB DIV 51 73 94 104 114 108 113 99 63 46 -7 -2 2 19 35 9 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 5 6 0 -1 -3 -5 -2 5 0 3 LAND (KM) 1650 1566 1483 1423 1379 1376 1452 1593 1720 1692 1596 1445 1263 1146 1057 1048 1088 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.9 14.2 16.4 18.7 20.7 22.0 23.2 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.5 40.5 41.2 41.8 42.4 42.8 43.5 44.4 45.6 47.2 49.2 51.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 5 5 9 12 13 10 11 12 13 12 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 27 28 29 30 31 27 28 31 36 34 32 34 33 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 38. 40. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 3. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 8. 3. 3. 1. 2. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 33. 44. 50. 49. 44. 38. 38. 37. 39. 45. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 38.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922025 INVEST 09/15/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.94 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.89 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.53 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 20.1% 12.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 32.1% 12.9% 3.3% 1.6% 10.3% 17.7% 24.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 22.4% 4.3% 0.7% 0.7% 8.7% 7.6% 9.2% Consensus: 2.6% 24.9% 9.8% 4.0% 0.8% 6.3% 14.0% 11.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922025 INVEST 09/15/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922025 INVEST 09/15/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 39 46 58 69 75 74 69 63 63 62 64 70 72 75 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 42 54 65 71 70 65 59 59 58 60 66 68 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 34 46 57 63 62 57 51 51 50 52 58 60 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 22 34 45 51 50 45 39 39 38 40 46 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT