* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/06/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 47 57 64 70 75 77 79 78 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 47 57 64 70 75 77 79 78 65 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 45 54 63 71 74 74 72 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 5 8 8 7 6 5 5 10 14 15 20 26 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 5 4 3 2 4 -1 -2 0 0 3 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 92 105 96 80 70 83 24 29 12 318 312 313 291 294 305 315 337 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 144 146 143 145 145 155 156 158 163 161 160 158 160 158 155 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 58 58 56 57 54 56 56 58 59 60 62 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 26 28 27 8 -6 -3 -23 -20 -33 -17 -16 -7 -17 -12 -31 200 MB DIV 14 8 -2 -21 -11 -9 -16 11 8 14 7 -3 -1 10 1 26 14 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 3 0 4 1 4 8 9 7 7 LAND (KM) 1567 1475 1387 1285 1181 992 778 680 514 241 42 56 212 177 71 -2 111 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.4 11.6 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 40.3 41.3 42.5 43.8 46.4 49.2 52.0 54.8 57.2 59.6 61.6 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 25 27 31 38 40 48 53 62 65 64 66 71 73 70 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 21. 28. 35. 41. 45. 49. 52. 54. 56. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. -0. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 22. 32. 39. 45. 50. 52. 54. 53. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 39.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 12.9% 8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5% 4.0% 5.7% 22.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 7.2% 4.2% 2.7% 0.2% 1.4% 5.5% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 4.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.7% 2.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/06/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 47 57 64 70 75 77 79 78 65 73 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 38 46 56 63 69 74 76 78 77 64 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 42 52 59 65 70 72 74 73 60 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 35 45 52 58 63 65 67 66 53 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT