* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/06/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 43 51 60 67 72 75 77 76 77 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 43 51 60 67 72 75 76 75 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 42 49 56 62 67 69 69 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 4 2 5 2 4 7 9 11 15 15 22 26 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 6 7 5 6 8 1 -4 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 150 91 115 128 103 90 228 12 308 338 319 331 292 298 304 319 325 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 140 144 142 142 147 150 155 158 162 163 158 158 159 158 156 152 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 60 58 56 58 56 55 57 56 59 60 61 60 61 60 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 34 30 29 13 -5 -10 -19 -13 -24 -11 -27 -8 -5 -7 -21 200 MB DIV 19 0 -12 -30 -25 -11 -27 10 2 25 2 33 0 -10 7 5 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 0 1 2 -1 1 4 1 5 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1649 1552 1471 1377 1283 1095 883 750 515 219 102 59 178 145 84 48 62 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.2 12.2 12.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.8 40.8 42.0 43.2 45.9 48.7 51.8 54.7 57.4 59.9 61.9 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 13 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 26 28 36 39 48 53 63 66 66 68 71 74 68 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 40. 44. 48. 51. 52. 55. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 26. 35. 42. 47. 50. 52. 51. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 38.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.70 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.1% 8.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.4% 6.0% 1.7% 0.6% 4.2% 5.3% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 1.4% 8.7% 5.4% 2.9% 0.2% 1.6% 5.5% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.8% 2.7% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/06/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 36 43 51 60 67 72 75 76 75 76 78 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 35 42 50 59 66 71 74 75 74 75 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 32 39 47 56 63 68 71 72 71 72 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 32 40 49 56 61 64 65 64 65 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT