* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/06/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 34 40 46 53 58 61 61 61 58 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 34 40 46 53 58 61 61 61 58 57 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 32 36 40 44 48 49 50 50 48 45 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 12 14 18 23 27 29 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 4 6 6 4 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 155 144 98 120 126 108 159 261 275 287 284 289 279 273 270 290 296 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 132 136 142 142 147 150 153 154 159 152 155 158 156 155 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 60 59 57 55 55 56 56 58 60 62 64 65 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 39 34 33 26 6 -15 -14 -25 -26 -38 -22 -26 -8 -11 -14 200 MB DIV 53 34 9 0 8 -2 -19 4 -4 19 35 44 27 14 23 18 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 6 3 6 3 3 1 -6 0 -1 0 -6 2 1 LAND (KM) 1692 1688 1695 1618 1519 1322 1136 944 846 570 369 274 153 0 48 59 183 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.3 38.2 39.2 40.4 43.0 45.8 48.8 51.6 54.2 56.4 58.4 60.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 24 24 27 35 39 49 54 58 66 66 62 64 65 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 33. 38. 43. 46. 49. 50. 53. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -11. -14. -15. -18. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 9. 15. 21. 28. 33. 36. 36. 36. 33. 33. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 36.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 15.6% 10.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.6% 5.1% 1.2% 0.5% 4.3% 4.9% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 13.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.1% 13.3% 6.5% 3.1% 0.2% 1.8% 5.8% 5.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 7.1% 3.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 09/06/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/06/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 34 40 46 53 58 61 61 61 58 57 57 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 32 38 44 51 56 59 59 59 56 55 55 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 28 34 40 47 52 55 55 55 52 51 51 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 21 27 33 40 45 48 48 48 45 44 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT