* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/05/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 30 33 38 44 51 57 63 68 69 71 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 30 33 38 44 51 57 63 68 69 70 71 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 35 39 44 48 51 55 57 59 60 60 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 6 7 4 7 7 3 9 13 13 13 18 21 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 3 3 7 4 2 5 1 -5 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 154 131 134 113 127 98 141 193 271 288 319 306 299 272 288 289 290 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.5 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 135 138 146 145 145 157 157 160 160 162 158 158 160 158 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 65 62 60 56 56 54 52 54 57 58 60 63 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 34 33 28 23 13 2 -10 -12 -10 -28 -28 -24 0 -9 1 200 MB DIV 25 45 34 15 5 -25 -18 -20 3 -11 15 25 31 4 21 5 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 3 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1676 1660 1655 1651 1588 1399 1199 998 816 733 424 160 56 96 239 192 88 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 36.6 37.3 38.2 39.2 41.4 44.0 46.8 49.8 52.7 55.5 58.1 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 13 13 10 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 24 25 24 25 30 37 41 51 55 64 67 65 68 73 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 27. 34. 40. 44. 48. 51. 53. 56. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 13. 19. 26. 32. 38. 43. 44. 46. 47. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.7 36.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.71 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.62 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 16.4% 11.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 22.8% 11.9% 3.0% 1.5% 7.4% 8.0% 26.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 13.6% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 3.1% Consensus: 2.7% 17.6% 9.0% 3.8% 0.5% 2.8% 6.9% 9.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 9.3% 5.0% 1.9% 0.2% 1.4% 3.4% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/05/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 30 33 38 44 51 57 63 68 69 70 71 73 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 27 30 35 41 48 54 60 65 66 67 68 70 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 26 31 37 44 50 56 61 62 63 64 66 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 29 36 42 48 53 54 55 56 58 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT