* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 25 29 37 46 55 61 70 76 78 82 83 87 91 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 29 37 46 55 61 70 76 78 82 83 87 91 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 31 36 41 46 50 53 56 59 63 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 7 3 8 3 3 7 7 14 9 9 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 3 2 5 5 0 5 7 3 7 4 8 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 164 151 143 135 102 115 108 152 226 247 305 299 316 331 254 285 297 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.5 28.3 28.7 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 133 133 134 144 142 148 148 156 157 159 162 161 162 162 157 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 66 63 58 57 56 55 56 56 56 58 58 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 36 36 38 33 23 12 -1 -1 -12 -4 -10 -3 -8 21 14 200 MB DIV 0 19 40 22 17 13 9 -4 4 2 14 31 23 45 19 40 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 -2 1 0 -2 0 1 6 3 7 LAND (KM) 1696 1689 1672 1668 1649 1481 1290 1114 912 787 658 415 190 16 31 91 197 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.8 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.3 37.0 37.8 38.6 40.6 43.0 45.5 48.2 50.8 53.4 55.6 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 25 25 24 27 34 38 44 52 55 62 61 57 57 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 28. 35. 41. 46. 50. 54. 57. 60. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 26. 35. 41. 50. 56. 58. 62. 63. 67. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 35.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 29.5% 18.3% 8.8% 5.1% 16.4% 14.5% 33.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 3.5% Consensus: 1.8% 12.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.7% 5.7% 5.0% 12.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.9% 6.5% 3.3% 1.5% 0.8% 2.8% 2.5% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/05/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 29 37 46 55 61 70 76 78 82 83 87 91 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 27 35 44 53 59 68 74 76 80 81 85 89 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 32 41 50 56 65 71 73 77 78 82 86 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT