* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/05/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 45 53 62 69 78 83 88 92 96 99 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 45 53 62 69 78 83 88 92 96 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 27 31 36 41 46 53 62 72 81 86 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 9 9 8 5 11 9 7 3 3 7 13 5 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 0 3 3 -2 0 4 3 0 0 -1 5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 133 139 135 133 125 123 100 129 153 122 133 54 338 359 273 314 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.6 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 133 133 136 146 145 147 153 158 160 167 166 162 151 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 10 12 9 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 72 71 64 61 59 57 53 51 53 52 54 55 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 27 31 31 35 26 13 12 6 5 10 -2 15 12 44 35 200 MB DIV 5 -20 6 32 30 1 -21 -3 -4 26 11 27 14 28 9 35 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 3 -1 2 -1 0 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1733 1727 1705 1690 1673 1584 1400 1197 997 787 661 578 329 186 50 9 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.4 36.1 36.7 37.5 39.3 41.3 43.7 46.2 48.9 51.7 54.4 56.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 22 24 24 25 30 37 39 47 52 57 57 42 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 35. 42. 47. 51. 56. 58. 62. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 25. 33. 42. 49. 58. 63. 68. 72. 76. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 34.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 10.3% 5.1% 1.4% 0.6% 5.0% 6.1% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.8% 5.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 2.1% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.4% 3.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 3.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/05/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 29 36 45 53 62 69 78 83 88 92 96 87 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 28 35 44 52 61 68 77 82 87 91 95 86 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 24 31 40 48 57 64 73 78 83 87 91 82 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT