* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 40 51 60 70 75 84 89 91 92 97 101 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 40 51 60 70 75 84 89 91 92 97 101 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 36 43 50 57 65 71 77 81 86 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 6 8 10 8 7 9 5 4 4 3 13 12 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 1 -2 2 4 2 2 0 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 117 115 105 86 103 87 89 113 125 136 131 287 290 307 328 272 288 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 134 133 132 134 140 144 144 145 151 153 158 161 161 160 158 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 69 68 71 74 70 65 60 56 53 51 49 51 51 55 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 13 13 16 14 16 16 15 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 37 24 30 32 31 13 8 -1 0 -9 -8 -17 -10 -11 13 200 MB DIV -16 0 -18 14 34 20 9 -14 -11 13 10 23 48 15 39 31 43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 -2 -8 -6 -2 5 3 LAND (KM) 1724 1702 1682 1665 1663 1659 1527 1363 1200 1021 875 810 533 269 92 33 189 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.2 35.8 36.4 36.9 38.4 40.0 41.9 44.1 46.6 49.2 51.9 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 7 9 10 11 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 22 23 25 24 25 30 37 40 49 53 61 66 64 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 35. 41. 45. 49. 53. 55. 59. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 4. 1. 3. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 31. 40. 50. 55. 64. 69. 71. 72. 77. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 34.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 12.1% 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% 5.5% 8.2% 22.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 6.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 2.1% 2.8% 7.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.4% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.4% 4.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/05/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 33 40 51 60 70 75 84 89 91 92 97 101 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 31 38 49 58 68 73 82 87 89 90 95 99 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 34 45 54 64 69 78 83 85 86 91 95 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT