* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/04/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 35 43 51 59 67 75 81 88 95 99 104 107 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 35 43 51 59 67 75 81 88 95 99 104 107 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 37 42 48 54 60 66 74 85 95 101 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 3 3 7 10 7 10 10 10 8 8 3 11 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 81 101 105 134 132 107 129 162 150 160 136 156 81 44 12 302 334 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.7 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 132 132 131 137 144 142 147 147 157 156 157 164 162 165 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 62 66 69 67 70 72 67 62 58 58 56 55 55 53 54 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 11 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 40 36 29 37 33 26 16 10 0 -3 -2 -11 0 -4 20 200 MB DIV -41 -22 -8 -18 -2 26 20 6 -8 -3 14 17 34 29 35 26 30 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -1 0 -6 -4 -2 3 1 LAND (KM) 1781 1751 1731 1711 1707 1695 1561 1404 1236 1054 887 768 718 508 251 65 81 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.0 35.6 36.3 36.9 38.2 39.7 41.5 43.5 45.6 47.9 50.2 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 24 28 35 38 42 49 53 60 60 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 34. 40. 45. 49. 53. 56. 60. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 23. 31. 39. 47. 55. 61. 68. 75. 79. 84. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 34.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/04/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 15.7% 12.2% 4.0% 1.2% 8.2% 9.0% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% Consensus: 1.2% 6.5% 4.5% 1.4% 0.4% 2.9% 3.1% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.6% 3.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% 1.5% 3.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/04/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 35 43 51 59 67 75 81 88 95 99 104 107 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 79 86 93 97 102 105 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 28 36 44 52 60 68 74 81 88 92 97 100 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT