* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL912025 09/04/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 43 51 63 70 78 81 82 83 84 87 90 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 43 51 63 70 78 81 82 83 84 87 90 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 32 36 42 48 54 58 58 58 58 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 3 5 3 4 6 6 7 9 8 11 7 9 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 2 0 -1 1 3 5 5 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 57 67 106 188 255 158 214 119 139 166 248 239 258 245 274 286 263 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 131 132 132 133 133 140 139 142 141 145 142 144 149 147 150 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 70 68 73 69 64 60 60 60 61 58 58 58 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 14 12 14 14 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 44 45 42 38 39 48 27 21 16 8 2 -14 -23 -33 -32 -18 200 MB DIV -21 -28 -19 -11 -8 58 56 51 -24 -8 25 5 1 25 20 15 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 3 3 2 -2 -2 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1751 1787 1768 1734 1716 1706 1642 1515 1383 1263 1132 1073 925 764 654 505 341 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.2 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.3 34.8 35.5 36.1 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.4 44.3 46.6 48.8 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 23 25 29 35 38 46 50 51 54 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 34. 39. 44. 47. 50. 51. 54. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 3. 1. 3. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 23. 31. 43. 50. 58. 61. 62. 63. 64. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.1 33.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912025 INVEST 09/04/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.06 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 12.3% 9.2% 3.6% 1.0% 7.2% 9.8% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.8% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 2.6% 3.6% 5.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912025 INVEST 09/04/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 32 43 51 63 70 78 81 82 83 84 87 90 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 30 41 49 61 68 76 79 80 81 82 85 88 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 26 37 45 57 64 72 75 76 77 78 81 84 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT