* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 51 57 63 70 72 75 84 93 101 107 108 109 105 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 50 51 57 63 70 72 75 84 93 101 107 108 109 105 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 47 48 51 55 58 63 68 76 83 89 93 94 88 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 14 12 13 8 8 11 16 16 18 15 16 17 26 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 6 9 0 1 3 9 2 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 280 293 294 270 263 282 292 306 280 299 274 281 256 235 224 232 229 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 168 167 167 168 168 167 167 166 165 167 167 166 165 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 80 80 76 72 68 64 58 52 46 40 36 33 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 17 18 19 18 19 24 28 33 37 41 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 80 82 92 97 116 131 141 172 176 176 172 156 70 58 44 48 200 MB DIV 74 77 104 100 94 132 99 79 55 55 18 22 0 0 17 34 22 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 2 8 9 2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 244 285 327 373 350 307 282 223 178 140 111 102 117 102 79 77 77 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.8 74.2 74.5 74.8 75.0 75.1 75.1 75.0 75.2 75.6 75.6 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 65 67 71 75 78 81 82 83 80 79 81 80 80 80 80 80 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 18. 25. 27. 30. 39. 48. 56. 62. 63. 64. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 73.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 10.5% 7.7% 6.0% 11.4% 13.8% 24.5% Logistic: 1.4% 6.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 6.6% 11.2% 24.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 0.9% 7.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.3% 6.1% 8.4% 17.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.9% 7.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 5.0% 5.7% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 50 51 57 63 70 72 75 84 93 101 107 108 109 105 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 55 61 68 70 73 82 91 99 105 106 107 103 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 50 56 63 65 68 77 86 94 100 101 102 98 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 42 48 55 57 60 69 78 86 92 93 94 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT