* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * MELISSA AL132025 10/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 50 52 54 61 67 69 72 79 88 95 101 102 106 106 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 50 52 54 61 67 69 72 79 88 95 101 102 106 106 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 55 58 62 69 75 81 88 93 93 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 13 14 13 8 12 16 19 15 21 20 19 24 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 5 3 9 6 0 4 7 5 0 -5 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 277 273 284 276 263 263 260 293 283 292 283 288 272 265 230 231 230 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 169 168 168 168 168 167 167 165 166 167 166 166 167 166 167 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 79 81 79 72 67 62 58 53 51 41 36 31 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 15 15 16 19 20 19 21 23 28 33 38 41 47 51 850 MB ENV VOR 70 77 80 84 90 109 134 136 160 177 179 188 183 162 79 50 61 200 MB DIV 71 89 97 129 112 93 99 57 54 57 32 24 6 8 -18 16 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 4 7 2 0 -5 -2 -6 -6 -2 0 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 268 317 366 353 327 256 203 175 132 125 125 110 74 65 56 57 32 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.6 74.0 74.4 74.7 75.0 75.5 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.4 75.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 67 71 74 77 81 85 84 83 80 79 79 79 77 77 79 79 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 816 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 6. 7. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 34. 37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 22. 24. 27. 34. 43. 50. 56. 57. 61. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 73.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.71 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 19.7% 11.9% 8.5% 6.7% 12.1% 14.0% 24.4% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.5% 7.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.2% 4.3% 5.1% 9.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 6.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.6% 2.6% 3.0% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132025 MELISSA 10/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 50 52 54 61 67 69 72 79 88 95 101 102 106 106 18HR AGO 45 44 45 48 50 52 59 65 67 70 77 86 93 99 100 104 104 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 48 55 61 63 66 73 82 89 95 96 100 100 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 46 52 54 57 64 73 80 86 87 91 91 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT